Bank of Canada Rate Announcement Oct 28th, 2020
Diane Buchanan • October 28, 2020
The Bank of Canada today maintained its target for the overnight rate at the effective lower bound of ¼ percent, with the Bank Rate at ½ percent and the deposit rate at ¼ percent. The Bank is maintaining its extraordinary forward guidance, reinforced and supplemented by its quantitative easing (QE) program. The Bank is recalibrating the QE program to shift purchases towards longer-term bonds, which have more direct influence on the borrowing rates that are most important for households and businesses. At the same time, total purchases will be gradually reduced to at least $4 billion a week. The Governing Council judges that, with these combined adjustments, the QE program is providing at least as much monetary stimulus as before.
The global and Canadian economic outlooks have evolved largely as anticipated in the July Monetary Policy Report (MPR), with rapid expansions as economies reopened giving way to slower growth, despite considerable remaining excess capacity. Looking ahead, rising COVID-19 infections are likely to weigh on the economic outlook in many countries, and growth will continue to rely heavily on policy support.
In the United States, GDP growth rebounded strongly but appears to be slowing considerably. China’s economic output is back to pre-pandemic levels and its recovery continues to broaden. Emerging-market economies have been hit harder, especially those with severe outbreaks. The recovery in Europe is slowing amid mounting lockdowns. Overall, global GDP is projected to contract by about 4 percent in 2020 before growing by just over 4 ½ percent, on average, in 2021–22.
Oil prices remain about 30 percent below pre-pandemic levels. Meanwhile, non-energy commodity prices, on average, have more than fully recovered. Despite continued low oil prices, the Canadian dollar has appreciated since July, largely reflecting a broad-based depreciation of the US dollar.
In Canada, the rebound in employment and GDP was stronger than expected as the economy reopened through the summer. The economy is now transitioning to a more moderate recuperation phase. In the fourth quarter, growth is expected to slow markedly, due in part to rising COVID-19 case numbers. The economic effects of the pandemic are highly uneven across sectors and are particularly affecting low-income workers. Recognizing these challenges, governments have extended and modified business and income support programs.
After a decline of about 5 ½ percent in 2020, the Bank expects Canada’s economy to grow by almost 4 percent on average in 2021 and 2022. Growth will likely be choppy as domestic demand is influenced by the evolution of the virus and its impact on consumer and business confidence. Considering the likely long-lasting effects of the pandemic, the Bank has revised down its estimate of Canada’s potential growth over the projection horizon.
CPI inflation was at 0.5 percent in September and is expected to stay below the Bank’s target band of 1 to 3 percent until early 2021, largely due to low energy prices. Measures of core inflation are all below 2 percent, consistent with an economy where demand has fallen by more than supply. Inflation is expected to remain below target throughout the projection horizon.
As the economy recuperates, it will continue to require extraordinary monetary policy support. The Governing Council will hold the policy interest rate at the effective lower bound until economic slack is absorbed so that the 2 percent inflation target is sustainably achieved. In our current projection, this does not happen until into 2023. The Bank is continuing its QE program and recalibrating it as described above. The program will continue until the recovery is well underway. We are committed to providing the monetary policy stimulus needed to support the recovery and achieve the inflation objective.
The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is December 9, 2020. The next full update of the Bank’s outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, will be published in the MPR on January 20, 2021.
Your Guide to Real Estate Investment in Canada Real estate has long been one of the most popular ways Canadians build wealth. Whether you’re purchasing your first rental property or expanding an existing portfolio, understanding how real estate investment works in Canada—and how it’s financed—is key to making smart decisions. This guide walks through the fundamentals you need to know before getting started. Why Canadians Invest in Real Estate Real estate offers several potential benefits as an investment: Long-term appreciation of property value Rental income that can support cash flow Leverage , allowing you to invest using borrowed funds Tangible asset with intrinsic value Portfolio diversification beyond stocks and bonds When structured properly, real estate can support both income and long-term net worth growth. Types of Real Estate Investments Investors typically focus on one or more of the following: Long-term residential rentals Short-term or vacation rentals (subject to local regulations) Multi-unit residential properties Pre-construction or assignment purchases Value-add properties that require renovations Each type comes with different financing rules, risks, and return profiles. Down Payment Requirements for Investment Properties In Canada, investment properties generally require higher down payments than owner-occupied homes. Typical minimums include: 20% down payment for most rental properties Higher down payments may be required depending on: Number of units Property type Borrower profile Lender guidelines Down payment source, income stability, and credit history all play a role in approval. How Rental Income Is Used to Qualify Lenders don’t always count 100% of rental income. Depending on the lender and mortgage product, they may: Use a rental income offset , or Include a percentage of rental income toward qualification Understanding how income is treated can significantly impact borrowing power. Financing Options for Investors Investment financing can include: Conventional mortgages Insured or insurable options (in limited scenarios) Alternative or broker-only lenders Refinancing equity from existing properties Purchase plus improvements for value-add projects Access to multiple lenders is often crucial for investors as portfolios grow. Key Costs Investors Should Plan For Beyond the purchase price, investors should budget for: Property taxes Insurance Maintenance and repairs Vacancy periods Property management fees (if applicable) Legal and closing costs A realistic cash-flow analysis is essential before buying. Risk Considerations Like any investment, real estate carries risk. Key factors to consider include: Interest rate changes Market fluctuations Tenant turnover Regulatory changes Liquidity (real estate is not easily sold quickly) A strong financing structure can help manage many of these risks. The Role of a Mortgage Professional Investment mortgages are rarely “one-size-fits-all.” Lender policies vary widely, especially as you acquire more properties. Working with an independent mortgage professional allows you to: Compare multiple lender strategies Structure financing for long-term growth Preserve flexibility as your portfolio evolves Avoid costly mistakes early on Final Thoughts Real estate investment in Canada can be a powerful wealth-building tool when approached with a clear strategy and proper financing. Whether you’re exploring your first rental property or planning your next acquisition, understanding the numbers—and the lending landscape—matters. If you’d like to discuss investment property financing, run the numbers, or explore your options, feel free to connect. A well-planned mortgage strategy can make all the difference in long-term success.
Fixed vs. Variable Rate Mortgages: Which One Fits Your Life? Whether you’re buying your first home, refinancing your current mortgage, or approaching renewal, one big decision stands in your way: fixed or variable rate? It’s a question many homeowners wrestle with—and the right answer depends on your goals, lifestyle, and risk tolerance. Let’s break down the key differences so you can move forward with confidence. Fixed Rate: Stability & Predictability A fixed-rate mortgage offers one major advantage: peace of mind . Your interest rate stays the same for the entire term—usually five years—regardless of what happens in the broader economy. Pros: Your monthly payment never changes during the term. Ideal if you value budgeting certainty. Shields you from rate increases. Cons: Fixed rates are usually higher than variable rates at the outset. Penalties for breaking your mortgage early can be steep , thanks to something called the Interest Rate Differential (IRD) —a complex and often costly formula used by lenders. In fact, IRD penalties have been known to reach up to 4.5% of your mortgage balance in some cases. That’s a lot to pay if you need to move, refinance, or restructure your mortgage before the end of your term. Variable Rate: Flexibility & Potential Savings With a variable-rate mortgage , your interest rate moves with the market—specifically, it adjusts based on changes to the lender’s prime rate. For example, if your mortgage is set at Prime minus 0.50% and prime is 6.00% , your rate would be 5.50% . If prime increases or decreases, your mortgage rate will change too. Pros: Typically starts out lower than a fixed rate. Penalties are simpler and smaller —usually just three months’ interest (often 2–2.5 mortgage payments). Historically, many Canadians have paid less overall interest with a variable mortgage. Cons: Your payment could increase if rates rise. Not ideal if rate fluctuations keep you up at night. The Penalty Factor: Why It Matters More Than You Think One of the biggest surprises for homeowners is the cost of breaking a mortgage early —something nearly 6 out of 10 Canadians do before their term ends. Fixed Rate = Unpredictable, potentially high penalty (IRD) Variable Rate = Predictable, usually lower penalty (3 months’ interest) Even if you don’t plan to break your mortgage, life happens—career changes, family needs, or new opportunities could shift your path. So, Which One is Best? There’s no one-size-fits-all answer. A fixed rate might be perfect for someone who wants stable budgeting and plans to stay put for years. A variable rate might work better for someone who’s financially flexible and open to market changes—or who may need to exit their mortgage early. Ultimately, the best mortgage is the one that fits your goals and your reality —not just what the bank recommends. Let's Find the Right Fit Choosing between fixed and variable isn’t just about numbers—it’s about understanding your needs, your future plans, and how much financial flexibility you want. Let’s sit down and walk through your options together. I’ll help you make an informed, confident choice—no guesswork required.
